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"opponent": "Kansas State", "margin": -11, "ratingGap": 0, "credit": 0.0 } ] }, { "team": "Marshall", "rank": 98, "score": 0.41126356368563655, "games": [ { "opponent": "Penn State", "margin": -45, "ratingGap": 0, "credit": 0.0 }, { "opponent": "Middle Tennessee", "margin": 2, "ratingGap": 7.513204999999999, "credit": 1.160576382113821 }, { "opponent": "Missouri State", "margin": 6, "ratingGap": 0.25729599999999664, "credit": 0.07321430894308847 } ] }, { "team": "Stanford", "rank": 104, "score": 0.3776784959349597, "games": [ { "opponent": "Hawai'i", "margin": 10, "ratingGap": 2.7326150000000027, "credit": 1.1330354878048792 }, { "opponent": "Miami", "margin": -39, "ratingGap": 0, "credit": 0.0 }, { "opponent": "Duke", "margin": -28, "ratingGap": 0, "credit": 0.0 } ] }, { "team": "Eastern Michigan", "rank": 135, "score": 0.3707395731707314, "games": [ { "opponent": "Sacramento State", "margin": 11, "ratingGap": 3.3164339999999974, "credit": 1.4829582926829257 }, { "opponent": "San José State", "margin": -6, "ratingGap": 0, "credit": 0.0 }, { "opponent": "Michigan State", "margin": -28, "ratingGap": 0, "credit": 0.0 }, { "opponent": "Wisconsin", "margin": -44, "ratingGap": 0, "credit": 0.0 } ] }, { "team": "East Carolina", "rank": 81, "score": 0.35317085907859075, "games": [ { "opponent": "Alabama", "margin": -38, "ratingGap": 0, "credit": 0.0 }, { "opponent": "App State", "margin": -3, "ratingGap": 2.621116999999998, "credit": 0.0 }, { "opponent": "Old Dominion", "margin": 3, "ratingGap": 5.6660889999999995, "credit": 1.0595125772357723 } ] }, { "team": "Florida Atlantic", "rank": 101, "score": 0.05153536585365829, "games": [ { "opponent": "Florida", "margin": -45, "ratingGap": 0, "credit": 0.0 }, { "opponent": "Navy", "margin": 8, "ratingGap": 0, "credit": 0.0 }, { "opponent": "Florida International", "margin": 6, "ratingGap": 0.5433299999999974, "credit": 0.15460609756097488 } ] }, { "team": "Bowling Green", "rank": 134, "score": 0.0, "games": [ { "opponent": "Tarleton State", "margin": -7, "ratingGap": 0, "credit": 0.0 }, { "opponent": "Nebraska", "margin": -49, "ratingGap": 0, "credit": 0.0 }, { "opponent": "Iowa State", "margin": -48, "ratingGap": 0, "credit": 0.0 } ] }, { "team": "Charlotte", "rank": 136, "score": 0.0, "games": [ { "opponent": "The Citadel", "margin": -2, "ratingGap": 8.878359999999999, "credit": 0.0 }, { "opponent": "Ole Miss", "margin": -32, "ratingGap": 0, "credit": 0.0 }, { "opponent": "App State", "margin": -5, "ratingGap": 0, "credit": 0.0 } ] }, { "team": "Northern Illinois", "rank": 129, "score": 0.0, "games": [ { "opponent": "Iowa", "margin": -40, "ratingGap": 0, "credit": 0.0 }, { "opponent": "Illinois State", "margin": -4, "ratingGap": 0, "credit": 0.0 }, { "opponent": "Arizona", "margin": -25, "ratingGap": 0, "credit": 0.0 } ] }, { "team": "Ohio", "rank": 108, "score": 0.0, "games": [ { "opponent": "Nebraska", "margin": -28, "ratingGap": 0, "credit": 0.0 }, { "opponent": "Jacksonville State", "margin": 2, "ratingGap": 0, "credit": 0.0 }, { "opponent": "South Alabama", "margin": -5, "ratingGap": 0, "credit": 0.0 } ] }, { "team": "Rutgers", "rank": 113, "score": 0.0, "games": [ { "opponent": "Massachusetts", "margin": -16, "ratingGap": 5.728541999999997, "credit": 0.0 }, { "opponent": "Boston College", "margin": -7, "ratingGap": 1.3027590000000018, "credit": 0.0 }, { "opponent": "USC", "margin": -7, "ratingGap": 0, "credit": 0.0 } ] }, { "team": "Texas State", "rank": 68, "score": 0.0, "games": [ { "opponent": "Texas", "margin": -52, "ratingGap": 0, "credit": 0.0 }, { "opponent": "UTSA", "margin": -5, "ratingGap": 0, "credit": 0.0 }, { "opponent": "North Texas", "margin": 14, "ratingGap": 0, "credit": 0.0 } ] }, { "team": "UL Monroe", "rank": 138, "score": 0.0, "games": [ { "opponent": "Mississippi State", "margin": -49, "ratingGap": 0, "credit": 0.0 }, { "opponent": "UAB", "margin": -6, "ratingGap": 0, "credit": 0.0 }, { "opponent": "SE Louisiana", "margin": -3, "ratingGap": 0, "credit": 0.0 } ] }, { "team": "Utah State", "rank": 100, "score": 0.0, "games": [ { "opponent": "Idaho State", "margin": -12, "ratingGap": 0.44402099999999933, "credit": 0.0 }, { "opponent": "Washington", "margin": -2, "ratingGap": 0, "credit": 0.0 }, { "opponent": "Utah", "margin": -33, "ratingGap": 0, "credit": 0.0 } ] }, { "team": "Western Kentucky", "rank": 128, "score": 0.0, "games": [ { "opponent": "Nevada", "margin": -35, "ratingGap": 0, "credit": 0.0 }, { "opponent": "Georgia", "margin": -50, "ratingGap": 0, "credit": 0.0 }, { "opponent": "Indiana", "margin": -38, "ratingGap": 0, "credit": 0.0 } ] } ], "method": { "brawlers": "FBS Top 50 only. For games decided by fewer than 28 points against above-median FBS opponents, refit the full model without each game. Sum positive rating lifts multiplied by (opponent rating - FBS median) / (highest FBS rating - FBS median). Negative lifts contribute zero. This is an index, not additive rating points or weekly movement.", "cupcakes": "All FBS. Average over all games: max(team rating - opponent rating, 0) times max(encoded margin, 0) / 30.75. This descriptive index retains a 28-point cap and 2.75 winner bonus. Losses and wins over stronger teams contribute zero. Higher means more dominance against weaker opposition, not proof of overrating.", "limitations": "Early-season, current-rating-based descriptive indices. Priors remain in every fit; model game weights are recomputed after removal. These are not validated predictors, nor a causal estimate of schedule choice. The definitions were explored against this snapshot before selecting this version." } }