TRTANNERRATINGSCOLLEGE FOOTBALL

2026 SEASON

The “Prove It” Ratings

All that matters is what’s happened on the field.

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Week 4 games teams
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RankMoveTeamRecordTrend

Select a team to explore its season. Higher ratings and schedule strength indicate stronger teams and opponents. Rankings are within the selected division.

02 / HEAD TO HEAD

Matchups & predictions

Next week. The model’s lines.

Build a matchup

Choose two rated teams. Neutral-field comparison, no home advantage.

VS

On the horizon

HIGHEST COMBINED RATINGS FIRST

03 / UNDER THE HOOD

Earned on the field.
Connected by the schedule.

This is Tanner Ratings: an independent take on Massey’s least-squares method. Each result connects two teams. Solving those connections together estimates how strong each team has been against its competition.

Explore the code ↗
01

Winning matters. Blowouts have limits.

Margins are capped symmetrically at 28 points, then a 2.75-point winner bonus is added. A 50-point win carries the same target as a 28-point win. Predicted lines use rating differences as point margins, rounded to the nearest half-point, with no home-field adjustment.

02

The schedule connects everything.

All supplied opponents enter the calculation. Game equations are weighted by the teams’ games played. Schedule strength is the average current rating of opponents already faced.

03

A little history. A fresh start.

Last season’s ratings enter as a Week 0 result against a zero-rated baseline, using a one-game prior setting (weight 1.0). Their influence diminishes as this season’s games accumulate. Early-season results can be volatile, and separate schedule networks make cross-division comparisons less reliable.

TEAM DOSSIER